Once again, I feel like I'm in that spot where I wish I could have gotten one more good long run in before a race. My last long run was 20 miles three weeks ago after having six weeks of sporadic training thanks to IT issues. Hopefully the 50K on February 28 gave me enough of a boost that I didn't lose much endurance.
Despite feeling like I haven't trained enough - I do feel pretty good headed into this weekend. I ran four miles at lunch yesterday, keeping my heart rate under MAF (151 bpm) in 35 minutes. That's an 8:45 pace!
According to most running calculators, that should translate to about a 3:40 marathon. But for me, the running calculators are usually wrong, so hopefully it means I have a good shot at breaking four hours.
Weather this weekend is supposed to be damp. Which is fine, as long as I don't end up soaked during the race. Sunday morning's low is supposed to be about 51 and the high 58. So even if there is some precipitation, the temperature will be hovering right around "perfect."
The course is fairly flat, with a 2-mile, 200-ft. climb starting in the 12th mile. After that point, it will be flat until a gradual 4.5 mile downhill back to the finishline near the river(s). So after a winter of hard trail running and a hilly near-seven hour ultra behind me, the course should be a piece of cake.
Optimum: 3:59:59 (9:09 pace) - actually, I've had numbers like 3:57 and 3:58 go through my head this week, but 3:59 will be a 20-minute PR and I would be elated with a sub-4:00 finish.
Satisfaction: 4:19:41(9:54 pace) - This is my PR set at my first marathon about 18 months ago. I think sub-4:10 should be very doable, even if I'm not feeling my best on Sunday morning, but my focus will be on a new PR.
Disappointment: 4:35 (10:29 pace)- I had considered putting 4:59:00 here, since that was time from the Erie Marathon, but if I can't beat my Erie time when it's nearly 30 degrees cooler at the start, then maybe it's time to just do 5K's for a while.