Conditions

In distance running weather can seem quite conspiratorial. The forecast this week has unequivically (I probably totally butchered that word) called for rain on Sunday in Erie. So I've been going back and forth on what to do about my race strategy. Should I still go for the sub-4:00 time? Or should I relax, aim to beat my time at Harrisburg last November (which I am 99% sure I will do) and go for the sub-four hour marathon in the spring?

Here's a look at Sunday morning's hourly forecast:

We're still a few days out, so it will likely change, in fact a 40% probability of precipitation is better than the 60% that was displayed this morning. But even if it doesn't rain, the humidity will be murder. I'll definitely be packing a couple towels to dry off with before getting in the car to ride home.

I also have questions now about my hydration plan - will the aid stations at each mile be enough? And worries about chaffing brought on by wet conditions. In my mind I'm developing an equipment strategy (I do think that the aid stations will be sufficient) and a recovery strategy, so I feel confident I can finish 26.2 miles in less than my time at Harrisburg and also potential break four hours.

So here are my three goal times for the 2008 Erie Marathon at Presque Isle:

1. Disappointment: 4:19:41 (time from Harrisburg) Even on a humid, rainy September morning I should be able to set a new PR.

2. Satisfaction: 4:10. I've done some calculations using the Runnersworld.com calculator and adjusted the results based on my race history and a 4:10 marathon should be very doable.

3. Optimum: 3:59:59 This has been my stated goal all year, a sub-four hour marathon. I'll start out at this pace and if I'm feeling it, I'll keep it there, but considering the conditions I may choose to dial it back a bit and shoot for the 4:10 goal.

Tune back in on Monday to see my results!